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ETF Outflows and Market Pressures: Is a Bottom for Bitcoin (BTC) Near? | IDOs News

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ETF Outflows and Market Pressures: Is a Bottom for Bitcoin (BTC) Near? | IDOs News
ETF Outflows and Market Pressures: Is a Bottom for Bitcoin (BTC) Near? | IDOs News







The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a state of uncertainty, with Bitcoin (BTC) nearing higher timeframe range lows on daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Additionally, there is a downtrend in lower timeframe charts, ranging from one-minute to 15-minute intervals, according to Bitfinex Alpha.

Market Pressures and ETF Outflows

One of the significant factors contributing to this uncertainty is the substantial supply overhang in the market. This was highlighted by the recent sale of seized BTC by the German government, which has added additional pressure. Other notable sources of overhang include Mt. Gox creditors and Bitcoin miners.

Furthermore, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been contributing to negative sentiment. Last week alone saw outflows totaling $544.1 million. However, these outflows were primarily linked to basis/funding arbitrage unwinding rather than genuine sentiment towards BTC. Historically, large sell-offs in ETFs often coincide with local bottoms in Bitcoin prices, as noted in previous editions of Bitfinex Alpha.

Volatility and Market Capitalization

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has also seen a decline. A pattern has emerged where Thursdays and Fridays have become high-volatility days. Last week, the peak-to-trough decline during these days was approximately five percent, which is significant for Bitcoin. Historically, such movements often signal at least a local low, presenting potential buying opportunities for traders.

However, the market remains in a wait-and-watch mode. Near-term scenarios could either see continued pressure from BTC overhang sales or a positive shift in sentiment, possibly sparked by Ethereum ETF approvals, which could renew interest in altcoins.

Macroeconomic Indicators

On the macroeconomic front, the US economy is showing signs of cooling, as reflected in several key economic indicators. The latest Leading Economic Index report indicated declining consumer optimism due to persistent inflation and high interest rates, predicting a slowdown in the third and fourth quarters of 2024. Despite this, the job market is showing signs of stability, with initial jobless claims experiencing a modest decline last week.

Significant strain is also evident in the housing market, with housing starts in May plummeting to their lowest level since June 2020. Despite these challenges, retail sales showed modest but positive growth, suggesting resilience among consumers, although the growth is slower than expected.

The industrial sector remains a bright spot, continuing to grow and potentially stabilizing the overall economy. If the trends of cooling economic growth and inflation persist, the Federal Reserve may consider a rate cut in September.

Future Outlook

Markets are becoming increasingly optimistic about inflation. The Fed’s five-year forward, five-year break-even rate is comfortably at 2.19%, close to the Fed’s two percent target. With jobless claims inching upwards, housing starts slowing, and retail sales growing less quickly, a reduction in interest rates could provide a welcome stimulus for the economy.

In recent crypto news, the German government’s sale of over $195 million worth of Bitcoin contributed to last Friday’s decline in BTC. Leading ETF providers, such as BlackRock, VanEck, and Franklin Templeton, are preparing to launch Ethereum ETFs, which could impact market sentiment positively.

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Enhancing Agent Planning: Insights from LangChain | IDOs News

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Enhancing Agent Planning: Insights from LangChain | IDOs News
Enhancing Agent Planning: Insights from LangChain | IDOs News




Alvin Lang
Jul 21, 2024 04:57

LangChain explores the limitations and future of planning for agents with LLMs, highlighting cognitive architectures and current fixes.





According to a recent LangChain Blog post, planning for agents remains a critical challenge for developers working with large language models (LLMs). The article delves into the intricacies of planning and reasoning, current fixes, and future expectations for agent planning.

What Exactly Is Meant by Planning and Reasoning?

Planning and reasoning by an agent involve the LLM’s ability to decide on a series of actions based on available information. This includes both short-term and long-term steps. The LLM evaluates all available data and decides on the first step it should take immediately, followed by subsequent actions.

Most developers use function calling to enable LLMs to choose actions. Function calling, first introduced by OpenAI in June 2023, allows developers to provide JSON schemas for different functions, enabling the LLM to match its output with these schemas. While function calling helps in immediate actions, long-term planning remains a significant challenge due to the need for the LLM to think about a longer time horizon while managing short-term actions.

Current Fixes to Improve Planning by Agents

One of the simplest fixes is ensuring the LLM has all the necessary information to reason and plan appropriately. Often, the prompt passed into the LLM lacks sufficient information for reasonable decision-making. Adding a retrieval step or clarifying prompt instructions can significantly improve outcomes.

Another recommendation is changing the cognitive architecture of the application. Cognitive architectures can be categorized into general-purpose and domain-specific architectures. General-purpose architectures, like the “plan and solve” and Reflexion architectures, provide a generic approach to better reasoning. However, these may be too general for practical use, leading to the preference for domain-specific cognitive architectures.

General Purpose vs. Domain Specific Cognitive Architectures

General-purpose cognitive architectures aim to improve reasoning generically and can be applied to any task. For example, the “plan and solve” architecture involves planning first and then executing each step. The Reflexion architecture includes a reflection step after task completion to evaluate correctness.

Domain-specific cognitive architectures, on the other hand, are tailored to specific tasks. These often include domain-specific classification, routing, and verification steps. The AlphaCodium paper demonstrates this with a flow engineering approach, specifying steps like coming up with tests, then a solution, and iterating on more tests. This method is highly specific to the problem at hand and may not be applicable to other tasks.

Why Are Domain Specific Cognitive Architectures So Helpful?

Domain-specific cognitive architectures help by providing explicit instructions, either through prompt instructions or hardcoded transitions in code. This method effectively removes some planning responsibilities from the LLM, allowing engineers to handle the planning aspect. For instance, in the AlphaCodium example, the steps are predefined, guiding the LLM through the process.

Nearly all advanced agents in production utilize highly domain-specific and custom cognitive architectures. LangChain makes building these custom architectures easier with LangGraph, designed for high controllability, which is essential for creating reliable custom cognitive architectures.

The Future of Planning and Reasoning

The LLM space has been evolving rapidly, and this trend is expected to continue. General-purpose reasoning is likely to become more integrated into the model layer, making models more intelligent and capable of handling larger contexts. However, there will always be a need to communicate specific instructions to the agent, whether through prompting or custom cognitive architectures.

LangChain remains optimistic about the future of LangGraph, believing that as LLMs improve, the need for custom architectures will persist, especially for task-specific agents. The company is committed to enhancing the controllability and reliability of these architectures.

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Binance (BNB) Unveils CPT Framework to Analyze Crypto Market Dynamics | IDOs News

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Binance (BNB) Unveils CPT Framework to Analyze Crypto Market Dynamics | IDOs News
Binance (BNB) Unveils CPT Framework to Analyze Crypto Market Dynamics | IDOs News




Rebeca Moen
Jul 21, 2024 09:51

Binance Research introduces the CPT Framework to analyze crypto market dynamics, focusing on capital, people, and technology as key structural drivers.





Binance Research has introduced a comprehensive framework to analyze the current state of the cryptocurrency market, termed the CPT Framework. This model aims to shed light on both short- and long-term drivers influencing market dynamics, according to Binance Research.

The past few months have been challenging for the crypto markets. Following a rapid rise at the start of the year, the market has been trading within a range. June saw an 11.4% decline in total crypto market capitalization month-on-month, despite some recent relief. As of now, the market remains 14% down from its March peak.

Drivers of Market Weakness

Several market events have contributed to the recent decline in crypto prices. Key among these was the distribution of 140,000 BTC (approximately $9 billion) to Mt. Gox creditors starting July 5. Additionally, the German government transferred 50,000 BTC (~$3.2 billion) to centralized exchanges and market makers between June 19 and July 13. The U.S. government also transferred 3,940 BTC (worth $248 million) to Coinbase Prime on June 26. Despite these large-scale disposals, some mitigating factors suggest that the impact may be short-lived.

Introducing the CPT Framework

Binance’s CPT Framework categorizes structural market factors into three distinct areas: Capital, People, and Technology. Each of these factors plays a crucial role in shaping the long-term health of the crypto market.

1. Capital

The influx of new money into the crypto ecosystem has slowed. This stagnation has resulted in a “Player vs. Player” (PvP) market, where participants compete for returns. Indicators such as stablecoin supply stagnation, a slowdown in funds raised by projects, and outflows from spot BTC ETFs highlight this trend.

Key Takeaways:

  • New capital is essential for sustainable market growth.
  • Attracting new capital requires appealing to investors across primary, secondary, and traditional finance markets.
  • Strong fundamentals and clear narratives are beneficial in attracting and retaining investor interest.

2. People

Market participants have faced challenges in generating sustainable returns. Retail users, institutional investors, project teams, market makers, and regulators have all been impacted by high valuations and sell pressure from token unlocks. Falling trading volumes since March further indicate a challenging environment.

Key Takeaways:

  • High valuations and low initial circulating supplies pose long-term structural challenges.
  • Increased awareness and research on tokenomics can help mitigate these issues.
  • Support for high-quality projects with small to medium market capitalization is crucial for a healthy market environment.

3. Technology

Technological advancements in blockchain and crypto, such as scaling solutions and user-focused developments, are crucial for onboarding new users. However, the focus remains disproportionately on infrastructure projects, which need to be balanced with the development of diverse and innovative dApps.

Key Takeaways:

  • Technological innovations attract a broader audience by providing tangible use cases.
  • Funding should be redirected to develop user-friendly dApps to amplify the reach of the crypto ecosystem.

Market Outlook

Despite recent challenges, Binance Research remains optimistic about the market’s outlook for the rest of the year. Several upcoming catalysts could propel the industry forward, including potential approvals of spot ETH ETFs, a favorable macro environment with potential interest rate cuts, the U.S. Presidential Election, and the Bitcoin halving event.

Market cycles consist of periods of ups and downs. Pullbacks serve as a healthy reset when there are excesses in the market. Long-term investors might see market corrections as opportunities to add to their portfolios, while risk-averse investors may consider holding their positions.

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NVIDIA Advances AI-Driven 6G Innovation with AI-RAN Alliance, 3GPP, and O-RAN | IDOs News

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NVIDIA Advances AI-Driven 6G Innovation with AI-RAN Alliance, 3GPP, and O-RAN | IDOs News
NVIDIA Advances AI-Driven 6G Innovation with AI-RAN Alliance, 3GPP, and O-RAN | IDOs News




Rebeca Moen
Jul 21, 2024 05:27

NVIDIA collaborates with AI-RAN, 3GPP, and O-RAN to drive AI-driven innovations in 6G technology, focusing on AI-native tools and frameworks.





The development of 6G technology is accelerating as the 5G era advances. NVIDIA is at the forefront, working with key industry players to foster innovation and collaboration in AI-driven 6G solutions, according to the NVIDIA Technical Blog.

AI Blueprints for Radio Access Network

The Radio Access Network (RAN) is a critical component of cellular networks, and AI/ML methodologies are being integrated to manage its increasing complexity. The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) has proposed an AI-native air interface for 6G, aimed at enhancing performance through AI/ML. NVIDIA has contributed significantly to 3GPP’s Release 18 study on AI/ML for the 5G New Radio (NR) air interface and is now focusing on Release 19, which will expand AI/ML integration.

Digital Twin Networks

Digital Twin Networks (DTNs) are essential for simulating and validating AI/ML models in 6G. These networks emulate physical 5G/6G networks, allowing developers to create and test AI/ML models in a controlled environment. NVIDIA’s Aerial Omniverse Digital Twin is a next-generation simulation platform designed to support AI-native air interface research and development.

Over-the-Air Innovation Sandbox

An Over-the-Air (OTA) development platform complements DTNs by providing a real-world environment to validate and benchmark AI/ML algorithms. NVIDIA’s Aerial RAN CoLab Over-The-Air (ARC-OTA) serves as a 3GPP Release 15 compliant, full-stack network sandbox, enabling developers to test and refine their innovations.

Collaboration with Industry Leaders

NVIDIA is collaborating with the AI-RAN Alliance, 3GPP, and O-RAN to drive AI/ML-enabled innovations that will define 6G. The AI-RAN Alliance focuses on creating implementation blueprints and benchmarking AI/ML algorithms for the new AI-native RAN. Meanwhile, the O-RAN Alliance is working on an AI-focused transformation towards an open and interoperable architecture.

Future Prospects

The pace of AI/ML adoption in 6G is expected to accelerate as standards become clearer and commercial deployment approaches. NVIDIA’s 6G Developer Program, which includes over a thousand researchers, is a key platform for ongoing and future collaborations. Researchers are encouraged to join this program to contribute to the advancement of 6G technology.

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